A million, huh?

Brexit – you may have heard of it. For 40 years, since the UK joined the then Common Market, there has been a substantial ‘Eurosceptic’ mood in both main political parties and in the country. This has been influenced by a never-ending stream of misinformation in the tabloids, claiming the EU is responsible for every one of its readers’ many ills –  including a few they didn’t even know they were bothered by until the papers told them – and spreading alarm that the EU’s ‘ever closer union’ means that it is becoming a federal Superstate, complete with army, president and anthem. To a proud ‘patriot’, this is anathema.

The rest of us simply don’t see it that way, and regard the visceral reaction to our ongoing membership with puzzlement. We value the notions of common cause and unity in a continent still bearing the deep scars of two World Wars that started here, while the requirement for 28 nations to agree policy, unanimously or by majority according to area of impact, offers some protection from the petty politics of the individual nations, whose negative aspects we are amply demonstrating to the world right now. Most law is made by the individual nations, and that will continue to be the case. The rest is voted on by elected delegates. The idea that the remaining 27 nations are willing parties to surrendering their nation status for fully centralised rule, with Britain alone seeing what is really going on … well, it looks a bit mad. Many people in Scotland want to both leave the UK, and remain in the EU as a separate nation. This would make no sense if the ‘death of nation states’ view of the future held any water. And equally proud nations like France, Germany, Italy, Spain … ? I mean, come on! When someone claims ‘Superstate’ as a reason for exit, I regard them as I might someone grabbing the steering wheel and shouting “ALIEEEEENSSSS!” (permissible, of course, when there really are aliens).

Due – it seems to me – to that relentless anti EU propaganda from billionaire-owned tabloids, the national mood has become increasingly Eurosceptic. A political party, UKIP, started with a sole aim in mind, to exit the EU, garnered a lot of support, particularly from what is still termed the ‘working classes’. Due in part to our peculiar constituency system of election, they were unable to gain any seats in Parliament, but ironically, in the EU Parliament’s Proportional Representation system, they gained several seats in order to harangue those on the EU ‘gravy train’ while collecting a fat paycheck, plus expenses and a £75,000 pension.

This drift of support from Conservative candidates to UKIP was a concern for Conservative leader David Cameron, then in a coalition government, and so in the 2015 manifesto, he offered a commitment to hold a referendum on the matter. Manifesto pledges are not really worth the paper they are written on, being honoured as often in the breach as the observance, but Cameron was true to his word, sadly, and on 23rd June 2016 we were offered a simple choice: Remain in the EU or Leave the EU (a question laughably naive, in hindsight, but adjudged by the independent Electoral Commission as least likely to confuse the plebs). To everyone’s surprise, including their own, Leave won, garnering 17,410,742 votes to Remain’s 16,141,241. Although a not-insignificant 1.3 million difference, the real margin, the number who would have to change their minds to wipe out the win, was just 634,750. We have been arguing ever since about what people meant when they placed their X in the ‘Leave’ column. It may seem obvious, but it isn’t – there are almost as many flavours of Leave as Leavers, from a cocky two fingers to the EU in its entirety, by midnight on referendum day if poss (oh, and can we negotiate a trade deal with you please, this powerful bloc we’ve just told to fuck off), to non-voting but expensive membership such as that enjoyed by Norway who takes all the rules and has no say in them, to full-blown NWO tinfoil-hatters.

Leavers were like the dog that caught the car, unsure what to do next. The great thing about referendums being of course that there is no accountability. You can say what you like, you’re not the one who will have to deliver. Eurosceptics were largely professional sideline snipers.

Cameron resigned immediately – my turd, you clean it up. Within a short period of time all three main parties lost their leaders. For the Tories, Theresa May emerged, eventually getting in unopposed when the other candidates wisely dropped out. In the UK, we do not directly elect our Prime Minister – ironically, given the ‘EU is undemocratic’ trope regularly trotted out. They are elected as MP by their constituency, in her case leafy Maidenhead in Berkshire. You don’t live there, you can’t vote for her. They then become PM by becoming leader of the party, elected by members (if anyone else stands).

For Labour on the other hand, Jeremy Corbyn, an old-school socialist, emerged. He had enthusiastic support, particularly among the young, and they were quite strident in their dismissal of ‘centrists’. “Why not just fuck off and join the Tories?” was a common taunt, which probably won’t be their opening line when they turn up on those same centrists’ doorsteps at campaign time asking for their support. To his supporters, he’s beyond criticism. To his detractors, he’s just a very naughty boy.

May was emboldened by the polls to try a ‘snap’ general election in 2017, to “strengthen my hand in EU negotiations”. Really, it was an attempt to smash Corbyn. The nation said “no thanks” and returned the Tories (having said “no thanks” to Jeremy too!) with a reduced majority. She had to rely on the Ulster Unionists, a group of 10 hard-line religious fundamentalists representing just 300,000 voters. Northern Ireland, I should mention, voted as a region to Remain (as did Scotland). I hope you’re keeping up; there will be a test. Now, Northern Ireland is an issue no—one had given much thought to. It’s long been a line of ‘Trouble’, but since we were both in the EU, and after long negotiations all parties had signed up to the Good Friday Agreement, a general, if uneasy, peace had returned.However, the Border will now be a boundary between Britain and the EU. Since we have (maybe; ask me again on Friday) exited both the Single Market and the Customs Union, WTO rules (not EU rules) mean that there will have to be checks – a return of the hated ‘hard border’. There are naturally concerns, and the EU has offered a ‘deal’ that involves an extended Customs arrangement. This requires a far greater say of the EU in our affairs – the very thing Brexiteers were trying to get away from – while simultaneously removing us from a seat at the table that decides these rules. Genius. Eurosceptics hate it and so do Remainers. It is an utterly pointless move, both agree. But whaddyagonnado? The referendum was split close to 50/50, and no-one thought to put in supermajority safeguards, so a compromise that absolutely no-one wants seems the only way to, in the leaden phrase uttered by politician after politician, ‘respect the referendum’.

The ultras are having none of it. They want to crash out without a ‘deal’, a position most people with brain cells regard as absolutely insane, and not one to be inferred from any individual Leave ‘X’ with any confidence. Yet they act as if ‘the 17.4 million’ (another leaden phrase) all wanted, and still want, exactly that. Even the dead ones. Most Remainer MPs meanwhile dare not talk of cancelling Brexit altogether, but talk of something softer but still Brexit-y, with Customs this and Single that, without really coming up with anything concrete. The EU are understandably losing patience. They have been the soul of diplomacy and patience in my view. When Donald Tusk remarked that “there must be a special place in Hell for those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan”, Brexiters were furious, missing the nuance that by resenting the slur they own up to having no plan…

“May’s Deal” has been soundly rejected by both sides in two record-breaking defeats in Parliament – and she wants to bring it back a third time! She’s convinced that if she plays chicken, and it’s that deal or ‘no-deal’, then her deal it is. This gives some flavour of the general unpopularity of no-deal, that it can be used as a threat – “if you don’t stop I’m going to turn this car right around!”. But now, the EU are saying if it’s defeated a 3rd time, you either go now or you have a longer extension and take part in European elections (did I mention that the EU is undemocratic?).

We aren’t ready. Not by a long chalk. In my area, IT, I know that it takes yonks (Google it) to put a system in place, and they haven’t even started – because they don’t know what we have to do! But May’s steely determination, with hardliners’ boots on her neck, has brought us to this ill-prepared impasse – a non-choice between two unpopular options that were not even on a ballot paper in 2016, and we HAVE to do it because … ‘it’s the will of the people’. Now where have we heard that before?

There is a febrile atmosphere. A pro-Remain MP, Jo Cox, was murdered in 2016, and all MPs who dare to retain Remain sympathies have received death threats (I am not aware of any such threats being made to Brexiteers). Even a lady who started an online petition to simply abandon the whole thing – more on which shortly – has received multiple death threats. The reasonable Leavers find common cause with racists, thugs and Nazi sympathisers. In this climate the Prime Minister took the extraordinary step on Wednesday of appealing directly to ‘the people’ and blaming MPs for the impasse, something one would imagine happening in some banana republic, not dear old Britain where our quaint system involves people donning ritual wigs and banging on a door with a big ceremonial stick from time to time. Given the recent assassination, she might be more careful how she whips up ‘the people’. The Government is making plans to impose martial law – martial law! – in the event of no-deal disruption. We’re hoping not to have to actually do it, they add, a little unnecessarily.

I have gone on at far greater length than I intended about the background to this; I was merely intending to mention and show a few pictures from the march I attended yesterday in London, where over a million people ***  – mostly middle-class, it must be admitted – came from all over Britain to make their voice heard, and demand a vote on the actual options available, which weren’t known in 2016 when the blank-cheque ‘Leave’ option was ticked (or crossed, I should say). Seems reasonable? You’d think so, but this is Britain. No end of Leavers, both in power and out, still insist that the referendum – that 634,750 excess – be ‘respected’, 3 years down the line. Many Remainers agree. But surely that phrase must have a sell-by date? 1.5 million people have died since, a similar number have attained voting age. That demographic shift alone favours Remain, because Leave is most heavily favoured in my g-g-g-g-generation (yes, Roger Daltrey is a Brexiteer).

It also seems a matter of basic fairness that Leavers should give their final assent to the preferred method of leaving, given they weren’t asked and the options differ markedly. If Remain happens to rank above any given Leave option available, they should be able to say so. Yet many – including our own Prime Minister – have explicitly stated that such a vote would be ‘undemocratic’. The irony of this was not lost on the crowd yesterday, many placards making mention of May’s three attempts to get her deal ratified while denying ‘the People’ any further say. Indeed, the placards and the general mood of the march made one swell with pride at the crazy Britishness of the whole thing. We stood in a 2-mile queue for an hour, then shuffled good-naturedly along, smiling apologies when feet got trodden on, with barely a policeman in sight (apart from Downing Street, where numerous officers stood in front of the gates, another 8 more behind brandishing submachine guns. “We only want to talk to her”, we might say, like an estranged husband trying to get past his ex’s mum).

A particularly clever brand of trolling has been invented by a group know as ‘Led By Donkeys’. This started as a chat in a pub by 3 mates. They decided to mock up a tweet of some genuine Leave-leader words, get it printed as a full-size billboard, and then stick it up guerilla-style in the dead of night. Subsequently they crowdsourced a bit of funding, rented legitimate space and hired a professional to do the pasting. When they got a bit more cash, they hired an ad van – ironically the same van used by UKIP founder Nigel Farage during referendum campaigning – and used it to follow Nigel about. The van was at the march yesterday, rotating some of their greatest hits – “If this is 52/48 Remain it’s unfinished business by a long way” (N. Farage); “It might make sense to have two referendums actually … ” (J Rees-Mogg); or the classic “A democracy that cannot change its mind ceases to be a democracy” (D. Davis). The latter was also printed up on a sheet 100 yards across and held up for the news helicopters to film, a stroke of genius.

Contrast this with the behaviour at many Leaver events. The committed are really angry, without apparent dilution by the self-deprecating, ironic streak of the average Remainer. Many point to civil unrest as a reason to cave in – some violence is a virtual certainty, but one that should not faze a bulldog nation that stood up to Hitler, the IRA and ISIS, as patriots never stop reminding us.

In parallel with all this, the previously mentioned petition, on an official government website, suddenly blew up on Wednesday – moments after May had delivered her ‘you, the people’ speech. ‘I’m on your side’. she said. It got under everyone’s skin. Within a short period the petition was being shared far and wide, as people sought the only means available to distance themselves from the “hive-mind with but a single thought” this obsessive woman tries to portray us as. 1,000 signatures a minute, it crashed the site several times. 2 million a day at peak (Thu/Fri), and presently sitting around the 5.3 million mark and rising. That’s 5 million people who just want to say “Stop” – not even “put it to the people”; Stop. Leavers are falling over themselves to try and discredit it, one site with terrible journalistic standards but a seat on a BBC panel trying to make something of the fact that many signatures were from ‘foreign places’. The fact that citizens are still allowed out of the country from time to time may help to explain this sinister pattern! Or you’ll hear it’s bots, or it’s people with 10,000 email addresses each and a lot of time on their hands … I jokingly commented that most of the people on the march yesterday were robots or foreigners, plus a bunch running from end to end like a kid in a panoramic school photo to bulk the numbers. It was almost Trumpian in scale!

Now, will any of this make a difference? Perhaps not. As I write, we leave on Friday, with no deal. Please send blankets.

*** Intellectual honesty demands that I dial this figure down. Crowd experts say about half that figure. Fair enough. Nonetheless, my Facebook post saying I was going picked up 27 ‘likes’, none of whom went. I’ll assume their support, and multiply it. I’ll discount the one Brexiteer who was possibly confused which march I was talking about!

346 thoughts on “A million, huh?

  1. walto:
    Allan Miller,
    Here, it’s “Trump”–I haven’t exhaled in three years.

    Just out of curiosity, how has your daily life been affected directly or indirectly by the Donald in those last three years. There’s light at the end of the tunnel, isn’t there? 2020?

  2. Alan Fox: Just out of curiosity, how has your daily life been affected directly or indirectly by the Donald in those last three years.

    Higher blood pressure, spoiled sleep. Watch more news. Unhappier. Got more interested in democratic theory. Started writing book on it.

    2020? Who knows? Depends on the Dem candidate, the economy, and the level of foreign intervention and hacking, I guess.

  3. walto: Higher blood pressure, spoiled sleep. Watch more news. Unhappier.

    Becoming angry at politics is like being angry at gravity. You have no control over who gets elected or what they do.

    Not only does it hurt you, but when it extends to your tribe, it is counterproductive. The Democrats have done nothing for the last two and a half years except ensure Trump’s reelection.

  4. Time was, we thought it was terrible when the Taliban blew up artifacts and Buddhas, but it was Okay when we took down confederate statues.

    It’s always been okay to tear down statues of hated dictators. Stalin, Hitler, Saddam Hussein.

    Byzantium pretty much invented the word iconoclast. They destroyed their own artifacts long before the Turks conquered them.

    But for most of my life, historians and academics fought to preserve artifacts.

    The pendulum swings, it do.

  5. dazz: Doesn’t make sense. Try this with google translator https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sublevaci%C3%B3n_de_Catalu%C3%B1a

    Spain didn’t even exist back then. I know, I’m nitpicking there but what actually happened can’t be summarized as spain “invaded and subjugated” catalonia by any stretch of the imagination

    I think the page I referenced seems to be an English version of your Spanish one.

    The end of the Reapers War seems a bit like the Sykes Picot agreement at the end of World War One, when the Kurds were denied a homeland as former Ottoman territories were carved up by Britain and France.

    France and Spain carved up Catalonia.

  6. petrushka,

    Thanks for the link, petrushka. I read that as a result of insufficient resources made available to deal with artifacts turning up during development work.. UK has/had a similar arrangement to protect archaeology during building work. It does rely somewhat on the integrity of the builders stumbling on stuff.

  7. petrushka: The Democrats have done nothing for the last two and a half years except ensure Trump’s reelection.

    Wow, that’s a bold claim! What should they have done differently? They regained control of Congress. All they need now is to regain the Senate and the Presidency.

  8. walto, I sympathize. I feel the same sort of helplessness that events are proceeding in a disastrous direction and being unable to change them.

    Here are some other anxiety sufferers whose stories I can relate to.

  9. petrushka: Becoming angry at politics is like being angry at gravity. You have no control over who gets elected or what they do.

    Not only does it hurt you, but when it extends to your tribe, it is counterproductive. The Democrats have done nothing for the last two and a half years except ensure Trump’s reelection.

    petrushka: The Democrats have done nothing for the last two and a half years except ensure Trump’s reelection.

    Thanks, all-knowing oracle, for your all-knowing words. You really should go to the track instead of wasting your precious wisdom here. But while you’re here, what result have the Democrats ensured in Pennsylvania?

  10. walto, Well, petrushka comes across as a “my glass is half empty” kinda guy but just ‘cos he’s paranoid doesn’t mean folks aren’t out to get him.

    Mitch McConnell as portrayed by Robert Reich. Accurate?

  11. Alan Fox:
    walto, I sympathize. I feel the same sort of helplessness that events are proceeding in a disastrous direction and being unable to change them.

    Here are some other anxiety sufferers whose stories I can relate to.

    Frustrating. No-one’s status or livelihood was threatened by Remain.

  12. Walto sees disaster looming and Alan thinks I’m the paranoid one.

    I’ve lived under Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush One and Two, Clinton, Obama and Trump.

    Life goes on. The government has such a big flywheel that presidents are just blips.

  13. I’ve been having some online discussions with an acquaintance, a pub landlord (a profession that, thanks to Al Murray***, has become a byword for a certain set of attitudes). I have to report one classic: “I’m not selfish, like people thinking only of the financial benefits to them of being in, I just don’t like the institution”. Such altruistic thinking will make this country great again.

    *** Murray, in character, stood against Nigel Farage in one of his many failed attempts to get elected to Parliament.

  14. Alan Fox: Well, petrushka comes across as a “my glass is half empty” kinda guy but just ‘cos he’s paranoid

    You misunderstand him completely. He’s ok with Trump’s reelection. Takes the long view. The world will, you know recover somehow. God’s good will, I guess.

  15. walto: You misunderstand him completely. He’s ok with Trump’s reelection. Takes the long view. The world will, you know recover somehow. God’s good will, I guess.

    You seem to have trouble with comprehension. It is a fact that the world will survive Trump. It is a fact that the world of politics will do its thing regardless of whether you like it or whether you lose sleep over it. Unless you are remarkably charismatic, your opinions will not make the tides stop.

    But I do not ask people to convert to my opinions, except on one minor point. And that point is contained in the serenity prayer.

    You will note the serenity prayer is not religious and not political. It does not call anyone to change their political opinions or to stop arguing for what they believe.

    It is, for me, a mantra. A cup of really well made tea.

  16. petrushka: You seem to have trouble with comprehension.

    That’s funny, since you just repeat below pretty much exactly what I said your view is. You take the long view (since Truman even!–we’ve seen the list eight times now) We’ll survive Trump, Somehow, heaven (or the world) will provide, blah blah blah. Again, this is precisely what I told Alan was where you’re coming from.

    It is a fact that the world will survive Trump. It is a fact that the world of politics will do its thing regardless of whether you like it or whether you lose sleep over it. Unless you are remarkably charismatic, your opinions will not make the tides stop.

    But I do not ask people to convert to my opinions, except on one minor point. And that point is contained in the serenity prayer.

    You will note the serenity prayer is not religious and not political. It does not call anyone to change their political opinions or to stop arguing for what they believe.

    It is, for me, a mantra. A cup of really well made tea.

    I’ll see your serenity prayer and raise you this:

    https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-irrationality-of-alcoholics-anonymous

  17. Well, since Trump is probably going to be re-elected, explain how you plan to survive.

    I don’t see the connection between alcoholism and coping with a world that disappoints you.

  18. petrushka: Well, since Trump is probably going to be re-elected, explain how you plan to survive.

    But, assuming you’d prefer someone else as president, you have an opportunity to hope for a change in 2020 and even campaign for it. Or as my daughter remarked yesterday, “your generation made the mess, it’s up to me and my generation to clean it up”.

  19. Interesting perspective from an ex Brexiteer.

    Sadly, the mood amongst the less reflective has changed but little – a few points favour Remain, but not anything to really inspire confidence. The most popular argument against another referendum is that Cameron’s government promised to implement his first-past-the-post poll, as if this places any obligation on Remainers to fall silent or future governments to plough on. We are lumbering doggedly on, in danger of doing something in haste now having painted ourselves into a corner, simply because of that enforced obligation and expectation. “It’s called democracy”, as one of the Brexiteers’ favourite sententious declarations would have it.

    Cameron resigned the next day …

  20. petrushka: Well, since Trump is probably going to be re-elected, explain how you plan to survive.

    Again, you’re wasting your skills. Isn’t there a fourth race somewhere? Wasn’t there just a big college basketball tournament? Go make the big bucks, smarty-pants.

  21. Alan Fox: But, assuming you’d prefer someone else as president, you have an opportunity to hope for a change in 2020 and even campaign for it. Or as my daughter remarked yesterday, “your generation made the mess, it’s up to me and my generation to clean it up”.

    Doubt he’ll answer that–or if he does, he’ll be coy. You actually do misunderstand him. Just as you did Patrick.

  22. petrushka: I don’t see the connection between alcoholism and coping with a world that disappoints you.

    I don’t know what you mean about disappointment. I just point out they’re intimately connected and one is not only really stupid but causing the waste of a ton of money. As you don’t seem to see the connection between the stupid costly thing and the prayer you like, maybe this will help:

    https://www.hazeldenbettyford.org/articles/the-serenity-prayer

  23. Alan Fox: But, assuming you’d prefer someone else as president, you have an opportunity to hope for a change in 2020 and even campaign for it.

    Of course you do. But losing sleep and spending all day in a rage is not productive. Listen to Yoda. Seriously.

    What I see is democrats who have nothing to offer anyone who is not already a true believer. The list of potential presidential candidates is the weakest I’ve seen, and I’ve been around longer than most of you.

    You must realize that hoping for a war or recession is a bit like investing your retirement money on lottery tickets.

  24. walto: Doubt he’ll answer that–or if he does, he’ll be coy. You actually do misunderstand him. Just as you did Patrick.

    My kids live in NYC and are completely in tune with the politics of the region. They are seriously disappointed in the image the democrats have recently acquired, and they agree with me that Trump could not have designed a platform less likely to defeat him in 2020. It’s a circular firing squad.

  25. walto: You actually do misunderstand him.

    Well, no. To misunderstand someone, you have to have attempted to understand something and failed in a paraphrase. I haven’t understood petrushka possibly but I haven’t attempted to understand and failed.

    Just as you did Patrick.

    Again, to have misunderstood, I needed to have made some effort at understanding. I don’t recall ever doing that.

  26. petrushka: Of course you do. But losing sleep and spending all day in a rage is not productive. Listen to Yoda. Seriously.

    What I see is democrats who have nothing to offer anyone who is not already a true believer. The list of potential presidential candidates is the weakest I’ve seen, and I’ve been around longer than most of you.

    You must realize that hoping for a war or recession is a bit like investing your retirement money on lottery tickets.

    You misunderstand me, petrushka. 🙂 This Brexit event is a new phenomenon for me. It is a once-in-a-generation thing. It seriously affects my life and the life of my daughter and many of my friends. It’s a new sort of madness.

  27. Alan Fox,

    My responses were directed to Walto, who said he was losing sleep over Trump. My “advice” was not intended as an argument against his politics, but against feeding his anger. I have observed it to self injuring and non-productive.

    I would like to see political parties arguing policy, but what I see is brainless tribalism, and my prediction is that Trump is winning.

    As for Brexit, the only Brits I talk to online have gone from uninvolved to opposed. My personal prediction is that EU has some intrinsic stress points that will force breakup or significant change. Brexit is the mine canary. It’s probably a good thing that most EU nations have flabby military infrastructure. They will have to content themselves with lawyers and accountants. I see this as a good thing.

  28. dazz: So there’s likely going to be a delay, right?

    It seems pretty certain. May has been using ‘no-deal’ as a threat, but no-one with any sense wants to be associated with it (which is not to say it lacks support! 😃). Despite no-deal on Friday being the legal default, an extension is being sought and will probably be granted. The question then is how long. May wants June 30th, but EU elections will have to be conducted on May 22, pointlessly. If they don’t conduct them, and then go for yet-another-extension, we’d be in a constitutionally dubious position, by the back door. The EU favours a longer extension, with sensible participation, but then UKIP would stuff the ballot with people whose intent is wreckage.

    Plus, we would end up 4 years down the line still in, with growing questions over the sense of zombie-ing along on a narrow margin delivered by a significantly different electorate. Which in turns begs the question whether such a margin was sufficient in the first place, even if we could have left the following day – 4 years would still pass, with indefinite commitment to the course nominally chosen.

    It really is an unholy, and entirely avoidable, mess.

  29. Allan Miller,

    It is indeed an unholy mess, but I’m not sure it is avoidable any more. That ship has sailed a long time ago.

    You correctly describe the conundrum for the EU – is it really worth hanging on the the UK as a member in the state it is in? For sure, a crash-out this Friday will cause major problems, but dragging the dead corpse along on a road to nowhere isn’t going to be pretty either.

    No-deal Brexit is a massive illusion, a misnomer in fact. It describes a moment in time, not a stable situation of significant duration. It is inconceivable in the modern world, with its intertwined societies and economies, that the UK would not have any deals with the EU for any length of time beyond a few weeks, months maybe. Too many things will stop functioning, or become so troublesome and expensive that solutions will need to be found.

    For those curious enough, here are all the EU’s ‘Notices to Stakeholders’ that describe in detail all the existing arrangements that would cease to apply in case of no-deal.

    This leads me to think that the quickest way to an agreement, an agreement on the EU’s terms, would be to block any further extensions and let the crashout happen. A much chastised UK will then be back at the negotiation table before the summer, to be presented with pretty much the same Withdrawal Agreement as now. Signing it would be the fastest way to get things back to near normal, at least for the duration of a ‘transition period’ of several years. As an added benefit for the EU, during that time there won’t be any troublesome UK MEP’s to gum up the works.

    If I can think of this approach, so can the governments of the EU 27. It only takes one to follow through because an extension agreement has to be unanimous.

    Anyone wants to bet?

  30. faded_Glory: Anyone wants to bet?

    Well, petrushka, who has been following U.S. presidents since he was in diapers and supported (though lukewarmly) some of Truman’s actions, knows what’s going to happen in the future, so he SHOULD bet. But he doesn’t care too much and doesn’t think you should either. Better to be serene–just go along.

    On his (long) view, heaven or earth will provide, hard exit or no hard exit, Trump or no Trump. It’s the deep, oracular way.

  31. Allan Miller,

    Buying some time must be better than a crash out for sure. Let’s hope enough people come to their senses and stop buying the nationalist propaganda of the right.

    Interestingly, the Catalan nationalists here use pretty much the same bullshit slogans as the brexiters there. And of course the Spanish nationalists are also in no short supply of bullshit either.

    Bunch of fanatic retards

  32. dazz: Buying some time must be better than a crash out for sure. Let’s hope enough people come to their senses and stop buying the nationalist propaganda of the right.

    Looks like the outcome is settling around a long extension, perhaps a year, with UK being able to cut that short if an agreement emerges before then from the fog. Anything could happen in that year. Maybe a ratifying referendum on a practical deal vs staying in the EU. Maybe an election with staying in as a Labour party manifesto pledge. Either would be somewhat democratic and one, other or both might happen.

    ETA, at least the pound is up this morning! Good news for UK pensioners abroad. Good news for economies benefiting from UK pensioners abroad 😉

  33. dazz: Interestingly, the Catalan nationalists here use pretty much the same bullshit slogans as the brexiters there. And of course the Spanish nationalists are also in no short supply of bullshit either.

    I still see the Catalans as very similar to the Scots. Both have had long periods as independent nations. Their nationalist aspirations are arguably legitimate. The economic fallout in both cases would, I suspect, not be beneficial. The possibility of greater autonomy within the EU seems an elegant compromise.

  34. Alan Fox,

    ETA, at least the pound is up this morning! Good news for UK pensioners abroad. Good news for economies benefiting from UK pensioners abroad 

    Bad news for me with my shedload of euros bought in Jan as cash deposit for a skiing chalet with no chance to spend before return. Yes, I know, middle class first world problems!

  35. Alan Fox: I still see the Catalans as very similar to the Scots.

    I don’t know. I’m sure there are many similarities and also plenty of differences. Catalunya is one of the richest regions in Spain and they have an autonomy that the scots could only dream about. Those are huge differences between them and the scots but it won’t stop them from playing the victims all the time.

    I just despise nationalism, I think it’s a toxic, brainless, divisive ideology. Got lots of stories to tell about stupid, evil nationalists of both sides here.

    Alan Fox: Their nationalist aspirations are arguably legitimate.

    Yeah, sure. Religious fundamentalism is also arguably legitimate.

  36. dazz:

    I just despise nationalism, I think it’s a toxic, brainless, divisive ideology.

    We are going through a global revival of nationalism. When WW2 was still fresh in living memory, people realised the value of joining over splitting. That generation is almost gone, their children are forgetting the lessons and are putting so much at risk.

    The splitters always complain, moan and whinge. I have never see anyone lay out a positive vision for a future where society is chopped up in little fragments, each jealous of their own prerogatives and always suspicious about what their neighbours are up to. For decades I was hoping that we had left that phase behind. It is coming back with a vengeance.

    One of the good things of the EU is that it combines overarching rule making in certain fields, mainly to do with economics, with safeguarding distinct regional differences. Unlike many nation states, the EU doesn’t begrudge minorities their own language and customs and actively supports their preservation. For some reason the Leavers are unable to see this. They complain about the EU forcing them to give up their indentities. I can only think that they don’t travel much in Europe. National characteristics are alive and well. What homogenisation there is seems more driven by American influences than pan-European ones.

  37. There is a never ending litany of the EU’s perceived failings, circulated in dribs and drabs online and in the press. ‘Ask Greece’ says one simpleton. ‘They repress African farmers’ gibbers another, unaware that 33 nations get tariff free access without any requirement to reciprocate. ‘They are winding down Operation Sophia’ goes another, without considering that the safety net may be encouraging risk taking.

    So what’s Britain gonna do? Send ships? Set generous tariffs? Personally guarantee Greece’s debts? No, it’s going to spend 10 years sorting out Brexit. Right and Left both believe their own version of Utopia will arise from the ashes. Both are deluded.

  38. Alan Fox: Well, no. To misunderstand someone, you have to have attempted to understand something and failed in a paraphrase. I haven’t understood petrushka possibly but I haven’t attempted to understand and failed.

    Again, to have misunderstood, I needed to have made some effort at understanding. I don’t recall ever doing that.

    I again wonder what you think the point is of wilfully ignorant posting in that case. Why say anything about anybody or anything if you admittedly often have no idea what the hell you’re talking about. Lull phobia? Attention deficit?

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