A Practical Exercise in Design Detection

Recently I described a possible alternative Turing test that looks for certain non-person like behavior. I’d like to try it out and see if it is robust and has any value.

Here is some data represented in an ordinary control chart.

 

It’s easy to see there is a recognizable pattern here. The line follows a downward trajectory till about observation 16 then it meanders around till about observation 31. At which point it begins an upward track that lasts till almost the end of the chart.

The data in question is real and public but obsolete. I won’t say what it’s source is right now to avoid any bias in your attempts see if we can infer design. I can provide the actual numbers if you like.

The question before the house is. Is the clear overall pattern we see here a record of intention or does it have a “non-mental” cause?

Using the criteria discussed in my “poker” thread I would suggest looking for the following behaviors and excluding a mental cause if they are present.

1) large random spikes in the data
2) sudden changes in the overall pattern of the data that appear to be random
3) long periods of monotony
4) unexplained disjunction in the pattern.

I have some other tests we can look at as well .

What do you say design or not? Are you willing to venture a conjecture?

 

peace

 

 

 

 

575 thoughts on “A Practical Exercise in Design Detection

  1. faded_Glory: And now you tell us that we have no way of knowing if other minds besides our own exist at all.

    I guess I can answer the question before the house with ‘I don’t know and I never will!’

    You really do need to step up your game if you want to participate we covered this long ago.

    We can never prove that other minds exist but we all know they do.
    We know lot’s of things we can’t prove but we get along just fine

    peace

  2. Erik: How does the test identify mental processes?

    It attempts to identify and eliminate non-mental behavior and by process of elimination seek to infer a mental cause behind the process

    Erik: The experimenter does not attempt to build an algorithm to describe the data.

    No you attempt to build an algorithm if you wish. But what we are really trying to do is eliminate any behavior that is algorithmic.

    Erik: The experimenter says, “There’s an obvious (?) pattern there and no algorithm to describe the data, therefore there may be a designer with mental processes behind it.”

    No the experimenter recognizes the pattern and recognizes that it does not exhibit any “non-mental” behavior then infers design.

    This is simply a detailing systematizing of the common sense process that we use all the time.

    Erik: The former steps qualify as positive proof of design in the data.

    Positive proof is impossible due to the problem of other minds. Then again positive proof is not necessary. We get along just fine with out it

    let me know if you have any more questions

    peace

  3. newton: I watched a YouTube video which pinpointed one difference between city driving and non city driving. It is the ability to break the law, humans have the ability disregard the rules in certain situations. Of course this ability also has catastrophic consequences

    Following rules are what algorithms excel at following the unexpressed spirit behind the rules is what persons do best.

    Of course this “mental” ability can at times have catastrophic consequences but it’s the price we pay to be able to navigate new situations that are impossible to program for in advance

    peace

  4. newton: I understand the premise, the point seems to be elusive ,perhaps by design. If I was forced to guess it would involve detecting the pattern of God. An age old endeavor. Then again it could be something else.

    The point is to attempt to develop a alternative Turing test that will be useful in all sorts of processes not just those that involve verbal communication.

    That it might also be helpful in looking at things like evolution is just a bonus

    peace

  5. Sir, I asked a question. The question was How. You are not answering.

    fifthmonarchyman: It attempts to identify and eliminate non-mental behavior and by process of elimination seek to infer a mental cause behind the process

    How?

    fifthmonarchyman: … you attempt to build an algorithm if you wish. But what we are really trying to do is eliminate any behavior that is algorithmic.

    How?

    fifthmonarchyman:… the experimenter recognizes the pattern and recognizes that it does not exhibit any “non-mental” behavior then infers design.

    How?

    fifthmonarchyman: This is simply a detailing systematizing of the common sense process that we use all the time.

    Is it? How? And what’s the name of “the common sense process that we use all the time”?

    fifthmonarchyman: let me know if you have any more questions

    Sure, but first answer the How question.

  6. newton: Your lack of curiosity about the structure of that which you seek to detect is interesting.

    I have a ton of curiosity about minds and persons. I just don’t think it is possible or at all helpful to define them with mathematical precision.

    I’m very curious about my wife but I don’t try to reduce and specify her essence in that way. To do so would be to exclude the very things that I find interesting about her in the first place

    check it out
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkfkJCyqCBc

    peace

  7. Erik: How?

    The professional poker players identified a number of non-personlike behaviors in the bot that they were facing. We are simply looking for those sorts of behaviors in the processes we are examining

    Erik: Is it? How? And what’s the name of “the common sense process that we use all the time”?

    It does not have a name as far as I know.

    But it’s what we do when we determine whether we are dealing with person or a non-mental process.

    Does that help you to understand the How?

    peace

  8. fifthmonarchyman: The professional poker players identified a number of non-personlike behaviors in the bot that they were facing.

    This has exactly nothing to do with your own test.

    fifthmonarchyman: We are simply looking for those sorts of behaviors in the processes we are examining

    We are not examining a process in your test. It’s a graph.

    fifthmonarchyman: It does not have a name as far as I know.

    So, I think I am being totally fair when I say you don’t have a test here. You only assume that you have a test and that by some magic it says something about something. Sorry, but it doesn’t.

    fifthmonarchyman: Does that help you to understand the How?

    I understand that there is no How to whatever you are doing here. You have no test, no exercise, no method, no definitions of anything relevant to anything.

  9. fifthmonarchyman:

    That does not follow from the article cited.

    Quote:

    The answer it seems—at least when it comes to navigating construction zones—isn’t to solve the problem. It’s to sidestep it altogether.

    and

    Earlier this year, Nissan became the first big player to declare it had no hope of making a car that could handle the whole world on its own. So it plans to use flesh-and-blood humans in remote call centers to guide troubled AVs around confusing situations, like construction zones. The company proposes its operators will use cars’ built-in sensors and cameras to guide vehicles through confusing situations. “We will always need the human in the loop,” Nissan’s Silicon Valley research head Maarten Sierhuis told WIRED in December.

    end quote:

    Neither of those excerpts support your claim that “a software system is not and will never be a person”.

    It’s a hard problem but you haven’t shown it to be impossible in principle.

  10. Patrick: It’s a hard problem but you haven’t shown it to be impossible in principle.

    Do you understand the difference between evidence and proof?

    peace

  11. faded_Glory: Look, if all you are trying to say is that computers are different from human beings, there is no disagreement. As to why they are different (apart from biology/technology), now that is where things might get interesting. At the highest level, both computers and humans accept inputs, process data and produce outputs, so from that vantage point there are no real differences.

    One level down, looking in more detail at how the data processing takes place, again I don’t think there is much disagreement that computers do this in a different way than humans.

    The problems start when you then introduce terms like ‘mind’, ‘person’, ‘thinking’ and so on. At that point we really need proper operational definitions, and they have to be broad enough to allow extrapolation from particular cases to the general. It is of no use to waste a lot of words on labeling a poker computer as ‘mindless’ when ‘mindlessness’ is narrowly defined as the way in which a poker computer plays the game.

    This is exactly the same problem we have when defining and testing for ‘intelligence’, and why IQ tests have such limited value.

    Then you say: Because persons have minds and software systems do not.

    This right here is your problem. You haven’t defined ‘persons’ and you haven’t defined ‘minds’, and I bet that if you try and do this you’ll end up with the simple Venn diagram I mentioned before: the set of human beings who have minds and are persons, and the set of everything else (ignoring hypotheticals like gods and demons etc).

    This reflects your worldview, nothing more. You may be right or you may be wrong, but you haven’t left yourself a way to find out.

    Now, as to your data example, I think it is absurd to show a couple of dozen data points and suggest that there are simple criteria to decide if these are products of a ‘mind’ or not. First of all you haven’t provided an operational definition of ‘mind’ that we can test the data against. Next, there is massive confusion about what processes are ‘mindless’ and what are not – certainly a problem for a theist who believes God is upholding the world. Finally, this is a ridiculously limited sample set.

    Ignoring the labels, this could be a record of snowfall in Northern Lapland (non-mental). Or it could be a record of snowplough activity in Northern Lapland (mental). Or it could be virtually anything else.

    Well put. The topic is fascinating but without operational definitions the discussion is nothing but hand waving.

  12. fifthmonarchyman:
    I think that developing a precise definition would be highly counterproductive. If you could define it in that way then you could build a algorithm to produce it.

    Part of what it means to be a person and a mind is to be beyond that sort of mathematical description.

    This reminds me of the homeopath who was challenged to subject his nostrums to double-blind testing. His response was “Oh, we tried that, but those tests don’t work.”

    Rigorous operational definitions are only counterproductive to people who want to don’t want to risk disconfirmation of their claims.

  13. fifthmonarchyman: I have a ton of curiosity about minds and persons.

    Not really, you apparently believe that you already know that there’s something necessarily mysterious that essentially separates human minds from manufactured items.

    I just don’t think it is possible or at all helpful to define them with mathematical precision.

    It isn’t. The problem is that you want to implicitly define “minds” as what can’t be replicated by machines (I doubt that digital machines can ever truly replicate human minds through and through, but that’s because human minds aren’t simply digital entities). That prevents one from asking the questions that are relevant to getting to the issues of “minds” vs. computers.

    Glen Davidson

  14. GlenDavidson:
    (I doubt that digital machines can ever truly replicate human minds through and through, but that’s because human minds aren’t simply digital entities).

    Digital machines can model non-digital processes though. I suspect that the first general purpose AIs will come either from that kind of modeling or from ever increasing augmentation of human brains.

  15. Erik: This has exactly nothing to do with your own test.

    asserting is not demonstrating. The behaviors that I listed in the OP are simply a rephrasing of those the players identified.

    Erik: We are not examining a process in your test. It’s a graph.

    The graph is a visual representation of data taken from a process.

    Erik: I think I am being totally fair when I say you don’t have a test here. You only assume that you have a test and that by some magic it says something about something. Sorry, but it doesn’t.

    Again asserting is not demonstrating.

    I use this sort of thing all the time to look for mental behaviors in processes. Ive been successful on more than one occasion.

    If you think that I’m wasting my time to do so you need to explain why.

    Erik: You have no test, no exercise, no method, no definitions of anything relevant to anything.

    Again asserting and repetition is not demonstrating.

    You need to explain why what I’m doing is not useful.

    Better yet you need to come up with a Turing test for processes that don’t involve verbal communication that works better that the one I’m trying to develop.

    as they sometimes say in the gambling world put up or shut up

    peace

  16. If the data points are just outputs of some parameter or a statistical representation of several parameters measured at regular time intervals, why are there straight lines joining them?

  17. fifthmonarchyman: asserting is not demonstrating.

    Exactly. And we need a demonstration, right? Then why do you keep asserting and never demonstrate anything? To begin with, define your terms so people can see what the hell you are aiming to demonstrate, if anything.

    fifthmonarchyman: The graph is a visual representation of data taken from a process.

    And there’s a world of difference between staring at a graph and observing a process, such as moves in a poker game, You have not understood the importance of this difference.

  18. Alan Fox:
    If the data points are just outputs of some parameter or a statistical representation of several parameters measured at regular time intervals, why are there straight lines joining them?

    To make it “easy to see there is a recognizable pattern here.” Duh.

  19. Patrick: Rigorous operational definitions are only counterproductive to people who want to don’t want to risk disconfirmation of their claims.

    Again it is impossible to disconfirm a claim about minds. That is because it’s possible for a entity to be indistinguishable from us but to have no subjective experience at all.

    There is no risk on either side of the argument there never can be.

    Don’t worry you are safe.
    I think that it might be helpful for you to repeat this to yourself a few times. Communication might be better if you could just relax

    I’m not going to prove that God exists or that robots are not persons. All I’m doing is looking for a way to help us with the design inference

    peace

  20. Erik: To make it “easy to see there is a recognizable pattern here.” Duh.

    But it’s a content-free artefact if they are point measurements.

    Oops! Missed the irony! 🙂

  21. Alan Fox: If the data points are just outputs of some parameter or a statistical representation of several parameters measured at regular time intervals, why are there straight lines joining them?

    because they follow a temporal sequence. Observation 2 happened after observation 1 etc

    peace

  22. fifthmonarchyman: because they follow a temporal sequence. Observation 2 happened after observation 1 etc

    As I said. That’s no justification for joining the dots with straight lines. It suggests a path between point measurements that isn’t warranted.

  23. fifthmonarchyman:

    Rigorous operational definitions are only counterproductive to people who want to don’t want to risk disconfirmation of their claims.

    Again it is impossible to disconfirm a claim about minds. That is because it’s possible for a entity to be indistinguishable from us but to have no subjective experience at all.

    Prove it.

  24. fifthmonarchyman: You really do need to step up your game if you want to participate we covered this long ago.

    We can never prove that other minds exist but we all know they do.
    We know lot’s of things we can’t prove but we get along just fine

    peace

    Sorry, you are wasting my time if you can’t see the glaring problem when you present a methodology to infer the products of a mind, and at the same time say that there is no way we can know if any minds besides our own exist at all.

    I’m bowing out.

  25. Erik: Exactly. And we need a demonstration, right?

    you do if you are going to claim anything.

    Erik: Then why do you keep asserting and never demonstrate anything?

    what have I asserted with out demonstrating?

    Erik: To begin with, define your terms so people can see what the hell you are aiming to demonstrate, if anything.

    Do you not honestly not know what a mind is?

    quote:
    The element of a person that enables them to be aware of the world and their experiences, to think, and to feel; the faculty of consciousness and thought.
    end quote:
    from here

    https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/mind

    here is the definition of algorithm for good measure
    quote:
    A process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations, especially by a computer.
    end quote:

    from here

    https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/algorithm

    peace

  26. faded_Glory: Sorry, you are wasting my time if you can’t see the glaring problem when you present a methodology to infer the products of a mind, and at the same time say that there is no way we can know if any minds besides our own exist at all.

    You are wasting our time if you don’t understand the difference between know and prove.

    If you are unable to make this sort of simple differentiation It’s probably good that you bow out

    peace

  27. Alan Fox:
    If the data points are just outputs of some parameter or a statistical representation of several parameters measured at regular time intervals, why are there straight lines joining them?

    If the straight lines result in a picture of Donald Duck we can infer design 🙂

  28. Alan Fox: As I said. That’s no justification for joining the dots with straight lines. It suggests a path between point measurements that isn’t warranted.

    Do you think that line charts and control charts are not useful ways to look at processes?

    If so perhaps you should make that case in other places than here. It would up turn quite a bit of the way we do root cause analysis and by extension science as a whole

    peace

  29. fifthmonarchyman: You are wasting our time if you don’t understand the difference between know and prove.

    If you are unable to make this sort of simple differentiation It’s probably good that you bow out

    peace

    Man, I never even used the word ‘prove’.

    You know, you would get a lot more traction here if you tried to listen to what people are trying to tell you. I’m not the only one pushing back on what you write.

  30. Alan Fox: But it’s a content-free artefact if they are point measurements.

    Both content-free and context-free. Exercise: Find the designer.

    At the university we had this “exercise”: One crocodile is swimming downstream. Another crocodile is swimming towards the river bank. How many apples are in the basket?

  31. fifthmonarchyman: Do you think that line charts and control charts are not useful ways to look at processes?

    Not at all. I just pointed out the lines are meaningless on your chart, if, as you confirm, the points represent measurements at time intervals.

  32. Patrick: It provides no support for the idea that they could actually exist.

    It’s not about whether they can exist it’s about whether I can conceive of their existence I can.

    If you think they can’t exist please detail the behaviors that we can use to infallibly distinguish between zombies and persons.

    Be specific and we will incorporate it into our test 😉

    peace

  33. Alan Fox: Not at all. I just pointed out the lines are meaningless on your chart, if, as you confirm, the points represent measurements at time intervals.

    I can if you like reproduce the chart with out the lines as long as you understand that the points are temporally sequential.

    The lines are there as a matter of convention the pattern is there with out them

    peace

  34. All,

    If you don’t accept the possibility of philosophical zombies it simply means that we can in principle prove that a computer is conscious or that God exists.

    I’m fine if you want to go that route. It only makes my test more objective.

    Please specify the behavior(s) we can use to infallibly distinguish mental from non-mental entities and I will incorporate it into the test

    peace

  35. fifthmonarchyman: you do if you are going to claim anything.

    The task at hand is examining your claims.

    fifthmonarchyman: what have I asserted with out demonstrating?

    For example, you assert that you have a test or exercise here. You don’t.

    fifthmonarchyman: Do you not honestly not know what a mind is?

    My knowledge of minds etc. cannot help when you have no clue what your own test is about. You are changing the terms so liberally that everything looks interchangeable.

    At first, “Is the clear overall pattern we see here a record of intention or does it have a “non-mental” cause?” Do you know the difference between mind and intention? More importantly, do you understand why the difference is relevant?

    It’s one thing what a mind is, but quite another what a mind does. And it’s altogether a third thing how to verify whether a process is caused by a mind or not. A graph does not give you that, certainly not without definitions and explanations about what is being presented.

    We don’t even agree if there is a pattern there and you refuse to demonstrate it. That’s why this thread is standing still while generating lots of mindless noise.

    fifthmonarchyman: Please specify the behavior(s) we can use to infallibly distinguish mental from non-mental entities and I will incorporate it into the test

    Indeed, please do it. Without these definitions you don’t have a test or exercise or whatever you call it.

  36. fifthmonarchyman:
    All,

    If you don’t accept the possibility of philosophical zombies it simply means that we can in principle prove that a computer is conscious or that God exists.

    I’m fine if you want to go that route. It only makes my test more objective.

    Please specify the behavior(s) we can use to infallibly distinguish mental from non-mental entities and I will incorporate it into the test

    That’s your job, which is why people have been asking you for your operational definitions.

  37. fifthmonarchyman: It’s not about whether they can exist it’s about whether I can conceive of their existence I can.

    No, you said “Again it is impossible to disconfirm a claim about minds. That is because it’s possible for a entity to be indistinguishable from us but to have no subjective experience at all.” That’s a claim about whether they can exist, not whether you think you can conceive of them existing.

    To support your claim you need to demonstrate that such things could exist. You haven’t done so.

  38. Alan Fox: I see your link and raise it with

    The Unimagined Preposterousness of Zombies

    I’m not surprised that Dennett would write that, given that his “explanation” for consciousness is that it’s an illusion.

    Still, I think the more important fact is simply that one can’t look at behavior that is similar to ours and assume that subjective experience necssarily accompanies that behavior. That’s assuming the answer for what is actually in question. I do tire of hearing of “zombies,” to be sure, since it’s really about not assuming that one already knows the answer to the question, and the rest is pretty much useless blather. But it still does make the reasonable point that you don’t get to assume the conclusion you want (Dennett should learn).

    Glen Davidson

  39. fifthmonarchyman: The lines are there as a matter of convention the pattern is there without them.

    So what you have is 65 numbers representing some parameter or statistical assemblage of parameters measured at equal time intervals. I’d agree with others above and say there’s no way to conclude anything on this amount of data without more context. I’ll look in again when you post your answer.

  40. Patrick: That’s your job,

    wait a minute,

    I don’t think it’s possible to come up with behaviors that infallibly distinguish mental from non-mental behaviors I’ve made that very clear

    Are you really going to claim it is possible AND that it’s my responsibility to demonstrate that it’s possible?

    really??

    peace

  41. Alan Fox: I’d agree with others above and say there’s no way to conclude anything on this amount of data without more context.

    no way to conclude anything
    really?

    Can you not even conclude whether the pattern in the data exhibits the behaviors I listed in the OP?

    peace

  42. fifthmonarchyman: I don’t think it’s possible to come up with behaviors that infallibly distinguish mental from non-mental behaviors I’ve made that very clear

    Your test is supposed to test that. Quote from an earlier FMM, “mental processes. You know the ones we are looking to identify in the test”

    Then I asked how does your test identify that. It should be clear that without operational definitions you cannot say whether or not your test identifies anything and, if it does, you don’t know what it is.

  43. fifthmonarchyman: wait a minute,

    I don’t think it’s possible to come up with behaviors that infallibly distinguish mental from non-mental behaviors I’ve made that very clear

    What is the purpose of what you’ve posted in this thread?

    Are you really going to claim it is possible AND that it’s my responsibility to demonstrate that it’s possible?

    I never made the first claim.

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